Cass Sees Freight Recovery as Rates Keep Rising
Cass data for May shows freight shipments close to turning positive after a long downturn, while truckload linehaul rates kept climbing. For fleets and shippers, the recovery is starting to look more expensive than easy.
May Data Shows the Downturn Easing
Cass Information Systems says a positive turn in freight shipments now looks likely after more than three years of year-over-year declines. Its May freight shipments index was down 1.2% from a year earlier, the smallest decline in 18 months, and shipments rose 3% from April.
The report does not call the market healed. On a seasonally adjusted basis, shipments slipped 0.3% from April, and the two-year stacked comparison was still down 5.2%. But Cass said tighter inventories, easing tariffs, and a softer dollar support demand growth in the second half of the year.
Rates Are Already Moving
The rate side is further along. Cass' expenditures index, which includes fuel, rose 7.5% year over year in May and 5.3% from April, its largest annual gain since late 2022. The truckload linehaul index, excluding fuel and accessorials, rose 6.9% year over year, the largest increase in nearly four years.
That linehaul index has now been positive year over year for 17 consecutive months. Cass tied the move to a combination of recovering demand signals and supply constraints, with spot indicators showing tighter truckload capacity.
What Fleets Should Watch
For private fleets and shippers, the practical takeaway is not just that freight may be recovering. It is that contract rates set earlier in the year may look stale if capacity keeps tightening. Budget assumptions built around the bottom of the cycle will need another look before fall bid rounds.
