Cox Cuts Used-Vehicle Forecast as Values Fall
Cox Automotive lowered its 2026 Manheim forecast after September wholesale values weakened, adding another signal for fleets planning replacement, remarketing and resale timing.
September Values Slide
Cox Automotive lowered its 2026 used-vehicle value forecast after wholesale prices weakened in September and depreciation accelerated through the third quarter.
The latest Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index fell to 205.9, down 0.6% from a year earlier and 1.1% from August after adjustments for vehicle mix, mileage and seasonality. Non-adjusted wholesale prices were down 1.2% year over year and 1.3% month over month.
EV Supply Keeps Building
Electric vehicles moved against the broader market. Cox said the Manheim EV Index rose 4.3% year over year and 0.6% from August, while the non-EV index fell 1.6% year over year.
EV remarketing volume is also becoming harder to ignore. Wholesale EV sales at Manheim rose 22% from the second quarter and 45% from a year earlier, with EVs reaching a record 4.9% of Manheim transactions in the third quarter. Cox expects EVs to make up about 16% of off-lease supply in the second half of 2026 and potentially 19% by summer 2027.
Replacement Math Changes
Cox now expects the Manheim index to finish 2026 up about 0.2% year over year, down from its July forecast of a 2% gain. It also raised its total used-vehicle sales forecast slightly to 38.5 million units, while certified pre-owned sales are projected at 2.6 million, down 1.8% year over year.
For fleets, the shift matters most at replacement time. Softer wholesale values can pressure resale assumptions, while growing off-lease and EV supply may create more choices for buyers watching lifecycle cost, fuel exposure and residual-value risk.
