Hybrid Shortage Shapes August Vehicle Sales Forecast
JD Power and GlobalData expect August U.S. new-vehicle sales to run at a 16.4 million-unit SAAR, with retail volume lower year over year but hybrid share rising sharply.
August sales pace holds up, but the mix is moving
JD Power and GlobalData expect total U.S. new-vehicle sales in August 2026 to reach a 16.4 million-unit seasonally adjusted annualized rate. That is down slightly from a year ago, but the forecasters said the year-over-year comparison is distorted by last year's EV tax-credit pull-ahead and a Labor Day timing shift.
Total sales are projected at 1,347,600 vehicles for the month, including retail and non-retail transactions. Retail sales are projected at 1,142,700, a 6.9% selling-day-adjusted decline from August 2025.
Hybrids are taking more share
The more useful fleet signal is the powertrain mix. JD Power and GlobalData expect hybrid share of retail sales to reach 18.2%, up 4.8 percentage points from last year. EV share, meanwhile, has softened to 7.2% after the end of federal EV credits.
The forecast also points to constrained availability of popular hybrid models, which matters for organizations trying to keep fuel-cost exposure down without waiting for charging infrastructure. For some fleets, the next procurement bottleneck may not be whether hybrids pencil out; it may be whether the right trims are available when replacement windows open.
Affordability pressure stays high
Financing costs are easing only at the margin. The average new-vehicle loan rate is projected at 6.55%, the lowest August level since 2022, but average transaction prices are projected at $45,563 and average monthly payments at an August record of $812.
For fleet buyers, that combination keeps lifecycle math tight. Incentives are rising for internal-combustion and hybrid vehicles, but higher payments and lower trade-in equity still make timing, replacement prioritization and vehicle class selection harder to separate from finance strategy.
